9/18/2001 09:01:52 PM
What an interesting day it has been today. I presented to a global banking organisation today, nothing weird in that. However, it was located in office space that I was located in one year ago with Eclipse Group. Well, I thought it was kind of weird.
PSA - Mad Racket this weekend featuring Steve Bug. If you don't know who or what then you probably shouldn't.
Invites are going out, are you slick enough to receive one?
9/12/2001 01:16:23 PM Unimaginable events rock US - A first hand account by Rory Robertson from Macquarie Equities
This is my account of some of the terrible things that happened in New
York City today, followed by some thoughts on the financial-market
implications.
Like many others, I was way too close to the action. I am pretty shaken,
though have not even a scratch. Thank you to all those who called to see
that I am okay.
At about 8.45am, we were on the ground floor of the World Trade Centre
Marriot listening to the breakfast speaker at the NABE (National Association
for Business Economics) conference when what turned out to be the first
hijacked plane hit our tower.
There was a bit of a bang and the building shook. We all looked at each
other across the table, wondering. Earthquake? Presumably everyone else
was also thinking about the 110 floors above us. Then the building shook
again. Everyone ran for the door and then the foyer. The move was
reasonably orderly. I noticed dust and smoke coming from one lift well;
probably it was a bomb (as in 1993), I thought? I was terrified, but okay.
Everyone was keen to get out into the street, but we didn't really know
how frightened to be. On getting to the foyer, you could see the debris
outside on the ground. Hotel officials told people not to go outside, as
things might still be crashing down. Maybe five minutes later, people moved
outside and we could see the hole near the top of the building. And the
fire. It was mind-numbing sight.
Thousands of people were spilling out into the street from buildings in
the financial district, but none of us had much idea what had happened.
Someone said it was a missile; another said a helicopter had crashed into
the tower. So it might have been an accident?
I didn't have a clue what to do. I guessed the conference was over.
Growing crowds were milling around. Like everyone else, I kept looking up,
marvelling at the hole and the fire near the top of the first tower. I
didn't see people jumping out, but many were talking about it. I noticed a
car torn in half and an engine that seemed to have flown out of nowhere. I
tried to ring Gwen and Matt (they knew I was in the WTC today) to let them
know I was okay. The mobile wouldn't work but eventually Gwen got through,
and she Bloomberged Matt at work for me. I tried to ring my brother in
Brisbane, but the mobile wouldn't call out.
I figured I would walk downtown away from the WTC and then walk to midtown
via the East side. As I started to move away, I observed debris here and
there, the sorts of things you would expect to see when a passenger plane
explodes. I was maybe 250 yards from the WTC when I looked up and saw the
second plane fly directly - maybe 150 yards - above me. Instantly, I knew
it was going to hit the tower. I didn't watch, I didn't see it hit. I just
ran, maybe 50 yards towards an alley behind a building, terrified that the
debris could easily carry to where I stood.
As I ran, I heard the explosion as the second plane hit. I made the
alley, and hugged the near-side of the building. My thought was that the
building was high enough to block out any flying objects, but looking around
the alley I could see bits and pieces from the first plane. A young
Japanese woman stumbled into the alley, crying and very distressed. We
hunkered against the wall. I put my arm around her shoulder and told her
that we were safe, at the same time hoping that we were. It was like being
in the middle of a disaster movie; it was hard to credit what was unfolding
all around.
After waiting a few minutes, I started walking quickly to the bottom of
the island, before heading East and then uptown. Looking over my left
shoulder, I could see the holes in the two towers, and the fires. My head
was still spinning. People in the street were watching, some crying, most
stunned. One guy walking beside me said the US was now at war; I said that
it would have been a terrorist group, not a nation, that had attacked. He
said it didn't matter.
My brother Alisdair called, and I said I was fine. He asked if the
buildings were still standing. I said yeah, marvelling at how little the
first tower had shaken, given that it was hit by an airliner. I was nearly
back to midtown when someone said that the WTC had collapsed; I said no, it
was hit by two planes. He said no, a tower had collapsed. I got home and
watched the second tower collapse live on TV; I also saw replays of the
plane that had flown above me. Scary.
My main thought is that many thousands of people would have been standing
nearby watching before the first building suddenly came crashing to the
ground. It might have been an hour after the first hit, so there would
also have been hundreds of police and firemen working in the area. I thank
my lucky stars that I was on the ground floor and so was able to leave the
building pretty quickly. I thank my lucky stars that I moved out of the
area after the second plane hit, well before the buildings started
collapsing, sending many football fields of rubble crashing through the
streets. I shudder to think how many hundreds, probably thousands of people
have been killed today. This is huge human tragedy.
Financial market implications
On my long walk home, the hopeless economist within me pondered what it
all meant. My thoughts are not particularly insightful. Most other
economists are probably thinking the same sorts of things. This is
obviously a huge global event, and there is no silver lining. The main
thing that comes to mind is that when economies are weak, they are
vulnerable to shocks. Even before today, the US situation was looking a bit
shaky. The US economy had already stopped growing, and consumer, business
and investor confidence was already under great pressure.
Today's events are a massive shock to the system. The world has changed.
It is suddenly a more dangerous place. The tallest, most-recognisable
buildings in the US financial centre have been demolished. The Pentagon,
no less, was hit by a third hijacked plane. My guess - like everyone
else's - is that this will be a big blow to confidence in the US and
elsewhere. Consumers, businesses and investors will be a bit more inclined
to hunker down.
The risk is that the news on the US economy in coming months will now get
worse rather than better. The sharp fall in aggregate hours worked in
August on Friday added to the possibility that GDP growth in Q3 could be
weaker than in Q2. US equity prices were already breaking though to new
lows for the year; that wasn't supposed to happen, according to the
consensus. One now has to be more worried about the prospects for US equity
markets. My 3% Fed funds forecast clearly has increased downside risk; 2%
might ultimately be where it goes.
US markets are closed until further notice. According to the TV, the
knee-jerk reaction all round the world has been out of equities into the
relative safety of Government bonds and the short ends of the world. It's
hard to argue with that. Gold and oil prices have also jumped, as they
would.
Over and out. Best wishes to you and your loved ones.
9/12/2001 10:56:59 AM
"When I despair, I remember that all through history, the way of truth and love has always won. There have been murderers and tyrants, and for a time they can seem invincible. But in the end they always fall. Think of it always."
- Mohandas Karamchad Gandhi
9/12/2001 10:31:05 AM
John, Petr and Sarah - I know you read this. Let us all know that you are OK.
9/11/2001 04:20:11 PM
As of the October edition, I'll be writing a marketing article for e.Law Practice Magazine in both print and web publications.
9/11/2001 11:44:30 AM
When asked why he was coming back, Michael Jordan responded: "For the love of the game, nothing else."
9/10/2001 06:36:23 PM
What a weekend. I'm looking to patent bottled sleep. Friday night started with a cruisy drink at Hugo's Lounge, then on to a late night dinner with pleasurable company at Golden Century. Now, I've told you many times before, you must try this place. It really is the only place to eat chinese in Sydney.
Saturday led to an early rise and gym session and then on to Bec's 25th. I'll probably refrain from posting pictures at this juncture. All that said, a fun night and leaving at some time past 5am displayed this.
The recovery day, and finally got my butt down to East Village after spending a relaxing day at Liz's place. I spun a few discs for birthday boy Rollar and enjoyed a Bloody Mary. It was early, but it felt late, and my body was tired.
As a footnote, a friend had her bag snatched just near Dug Out bar, so please be careful out there when walking the streets of Sydney.
9/10/2001 06:25:27 PM
Apparently Amazon.com have been goofing up a little with their wishlists. Here is the correct link to my wishlist.
This list that it was going to said I wanted an In-Sync album, a network switch, and some other weird bits and pieces.. go figure.
9/7/2001 03:30:19 PM
Feck! I just ruined another tie.
