long time no post.

i just love it when analysts come on CNBC and declare aloud, "well, the best time to buy stocks is at the bottom..." and goes on to describe how easy money can be if you employ this strategy. well, DUH! the question is... where is the bottom? the same analyst will prove either clueless or they are just plain guessing if they think they can determine the "bottom" now. some analysts are so lame.

posted by confucius007 3:33 PM

long time no write. but i just have to highlight something that i read from cramer from realmoney.com in his "Death and Tax Selling" article... this article points out something rather scary... and in a nutshell, he's saying that many fundholders are going to be paying income taxes on the gains that their funds realized during last year, but by year's end, they lost money. They are paying income taxes on capital gains that they never saw. and this could cause a lot of problems... as people figure these things out, they may have to sell these funds in order to raise capital to pay the taxes. or any other reason (frustration, perhaps). further redemptions perhaps? But when it's all said and done, it may be time to start building some nice positions heading into april 15... the deadline for tax-filing in the US. something to think about...

posted by confucius007 8:57 AM

gotta vent here... some green dude (only been trading for 1 month + 1 month of training) popped onto the floor, and sat in our "hot corner" in the hopes of learning how to make decent money. well, i ain't so hot, but some of the guys in the corner are very good. anyway, dude decides that he can trade just like the big guys and take lots of red in order to make the green. and all i can do is shake my head. the dudes who are hot are there because they learned how to trade with discipline and a good head... not because they traded big to begin with.

dude was trading 300 shares of CIEN at first, and now then he traded 800 shares. both of those trades are netting decent profits. now, he is mired in a 1600 share long position from $57 or so. he says he was planning to be 3000 shares long. dude probably only has $100K in his account. anyway, he has this amazing conviction that the stock will go green, and he won't take hits. he has declared out loud "i will not take hits. i will not lose money."

i'm willing to put money down that within 6 months, he'll be outta there. 1 year tops, unless he makes some radical changes in the way he thinks. i kept telling him that if he wants to succeed as a trader, then he has to understand that being disciplined is more important than being right... because it only takes one mistake to blow someone out of the game. one mistake to wipe out a lifetime of profits. without discipline, it's not a question of whether he will get blown out, it's a question of when.

so i rant because i genuinely want to help him. i dragged him aside, and tried to have a heart to heart with him. and i told him that, and the fact that being lucky in the beginning is the kiss of death for any aggressive trader, for with the luck, he learns of all of the success without first learning the proper tools. he would get too big too quickly, and will not listen to reason any more. that is where he is right now, and this is why i am concerned.

well, i know it's not up to me to "save" him, but i felt it was prudent that i at least tried to be a friend and tell him what i've seen and encourage him to change his ways. and if he refuses to listen, then so be it. but if i can talk to him, at least my conscience is cleared and i know that i tried. in all honestry, i want him to succeed and wish him all of the success. but from all that i've seen so far, this dude will not be able to, unless he changes his ways. he just can't.

i repeat again. successful traders take hits. they always take hits. what makes them successful is that they are disciplined so that there is never one case that the hit becomes his last hit. dude, if you are reading this...

posted by confucius007 4:40 PM

looks like decimals are in, and this is going to provide a big source of headaches for the next little while. simply put, i just can't read decimals on my screens... fractions are more automatic for me... when i trade, i think in fractions.... archaic i know, but it's true. but during this conversion, it's gonna be very frustrating, because the spreads have now thinned out... $0.01 spreads instead of $0.0625... it's harder to make money now... the environment is changing...

these markets are tough now... markets are being pounded right now, and my gut is telling me that it's down too much to initiate shorts, and too dangerous to go long. recovery is not any time in sight, and nobody knows what's going to happen. although we all know that the markets will bounce before recovery becomes obvious, but nevertheless, it's hard to pick a bottom right now.

trade lightly, and understand that most of the intraday movement will take place in the first hour or two of the market open... and the rest of the day tends to be stuck in a range... we'll see what happens... wait for opportunity... will write more later...

posted by confucius007 10:50 AM

markets like these, no bad news means markets go up. that's not a sign of a healthy market. i dunno... it's not easy out there...

posted by confucius007 10:15 AM

i might take tomorrow off too... with the snowstorm hitting the east coast hard tonight and tomorrow, it might be a quiet day in the markets tomorrow. i am not sure... but if tomorrow is anything like today, it's gonna be a big waste of time. i might come in for the morning and just trade the morning. we'll see.

posted by confucius007 3:35 PM

crap... what a bad day to come back to work. simply put, i can't make money in a day that markets do not move. the nazz is stuck in a 30 point trading range. tight tight tight. so who am i kidding trading in and out today? oh well. tomorrow's another day...

posted by confucius007 2:26 PM

i'm baaaaaaaaaack. not sure what's going on here, but i am baaaaack. first thing i see is CSFB "vigorously" reiterating a strong buy. reiterate a strong buy? they never sold from a higher price? they never downgraded earlier? did they have a strong buy from $200 down to $50? and they are "vigorously" pushing it? Ummm... yeah. crooks, i tell you. just crooks. even if they downgraded partway down, and upgrading now to a SB would give them more credibility. what a bunch of jokers. even if they are "right", i still think they are full of crap.

posted by confucius007 9:11 AM

"visibility has never been more opaque" and "we are feeling the effects of the softening economy" -- both declared by Brocade. A company that was thought to be "different" and "immune to the effects of a softening economy". yeah, right. and it's showing now. trading in the pre market in the 32s... down from 110 just 4 weeks ago. bad news after bad news after bad news. this is not a good environment. so far down i cannot short, the news so dire i cannot go long. trade... scalp. take profits when you can. that is going to be my declaration for the day...

posted by confucius007 8:49 AM

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